regional climate changes and their effects on monthly energy consumption in buildings in iran

this present research work was carried out to evaluate the energy consumption in a typical iranian building based on the forecast of climatic variables. thus, the lars-wg model was validated for some northwest stations of iran, including tabriz, ardebil, oromieh, kermanshah, hamedan, sannandaj, qazvin, and zanjan. the average monthly outdoor temperature was forecasted from 2011 to 2100. the relevant data were generated when this model was used in three phases, including calibration, meteorological data generation, and meteorological data analysis. in the model, hadcm3 general atmospheric circulation model data was extracted each day, and a special lars-wg model-based scenario is compiled for each general atmospheric circulation model network. the results of this study showed a delay of one month in the future yearly temperature curve and an average increment of 4°c in all the eight iranian cities. furthermore, as a result of these expected changes, the future maximum and minimum outdoor temperatures will be higher in the winter and reduced in autumn. another related result of this temperature variation is a decrease in the heating energy consumption in the months of february and march and an increment in the months of november and december. on the other hand, there will be an increment in the cooling energy consumption in the months of may and june and a decrement in the months of august and september. generally, some kinds of parameters, like the thermal inertia of the buildings and number of air changes, were combined as design proposals to define future building constructions with the lowest energy consumption. thus, with half changes in the air and in the heating season, the energy consumption is reduced to one quarter of the initial forecast value, and in the cooling season, the energy consumption will be slightly higher, reaching the energy consumption defined today. finally, it can be concluded that it is now the right moment to define future building design criteria.